太空天气预报需要升级，以保护未来阿尔忒弥斯宇航员

NASA's Artemis program is dedicated to returning astronauts to the moon, aiming for a crewed lunar landing by 2026 and establishing a long-term presence by the 2030s. However, space weather poses a significant threat to the safety of future Artemis crew members. Galactic cosmic rays and solar energetic particles bombard the moon's surface due to its lack of a magnetic field, posing potential health risks to astronauts. During large solar energetic particle events, radiation doses inside a spacesuit could exceed recommended lifetime limits by tenfold.

To address this challenge, the University of Michigan's CLEAR center is working on predicting solar energetic particle ejections from the sun, which can help protect future Artemis crew members. The sun's 11-year solar cycle, reaching its maximum activity in 2024, brings increased risk, with up to 20 large solar energetic particle events expected annually. While the sun's cycle can be tracked and trends predicted, the precise timing and intensity of these events remain difficult to forecast.

In response, NASA funded the CLEAR center, aiming to forecast the probability and intensity of solar energetic particle events. Currently, forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Space Weather Prediction Center cannot issue warnings for incoming solar energetic particle events until they are detected. Scientists at the CLEAR center aim to predict solar flares and coronal mass ejections before they occur by monitoring the sun's magnetic field using ground-based and space-based telescopes and developing machine learning models. Their goal is to provide advanced warnings more than 24 hours before such events, allowing astronauts on the moon to seek shelter and resume their activities when the particle flux falls back to safe levels.

The development of an effective space weather forecasting system is crucial to safeguarding future Artemis astronauts and enabling sustained human presence on the moon.